I must say I was wrong

I must say that I went wrong, based on what I was thinking, back in 2006-07.

Following is a list where I went wrong.

1. Sub prime Loan: I thought there will be a loss of 500B in the Finance Industry due to sub-prime loan. It is clear that it is way over 4 Trillion and no one know it is done. Read Article.
   
2. Bank Failure: I thought Couple of Bank will fail like Countrywide. Fact: There are 24 banks already failed and that does not include investment bank like Lehman, Morgan Stanley, Bear Stern.
3. Housing: I though that housing will go down 20%. Fact: According to the Shiller it has gone down 24% and expected to go down upto 30%.
4. Unemployment: I thought we unemployment will hit 6%. But its looks like it might go to double digit. The companies in the bay area has not yet announce big lay off yet.
   
5. Stock Market: I thought that Dow and S&P will not go below 9000 and 900 respectively. Fact: both went down significantly below that level.
6. Bankruptcy: I thought that individual bankruptcy will be less due to the fact that congress pass tough bankruptcy law. Fact: Bankruptcy is breaking the records.
7. GM Future: I thought GM will be all right for another 5 years. Fact: If fed does not help they are on the way of Bankruptcy as early as next year.
   
8. International Market: I thought, unlike before, they are not much impacted with the US problem. Fact: International market is still has lot of dependency with United States.
9. Interest/Mortgage Rate: I thought fed has no room to go below 2%. They learn the lesson from the past. Fact: Fed Interest Rate is at 1% and expected to go even below. Also Fed is working to offer around 4.5% Mortgage Rate.
10. Recession: I thought the recession will last 6-9 months, but looks like it will continue for more than 12 months.
    

Most of the above cases are related to each other. I went wrong due to the fact that the result of panic in the market place. No one can judge the magnitude of the human sentiment and the ripple effect of it. This is not the excuses why I went wrong, when you are wrong, you are wrong, no matter what. One thing I learned out of this mess is - you cannot measure the magnitude of the problem and its effect.