Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Dr. Nissen is God

Is pharmaceutical company devil? Not for the patient who suffer the diesesase. In fact, they do the business, they are capitalist. They hide the real information. They won't produce the drug if then don't make money. No offence with that though. Problem is they lie, and they lie again and again about the durg facts. So who are they Merk, Johnson and Johnson, Bristol Myer, Pfizer, and now Glaxo, basically whole industry work like that way.

Recently, Dr. Nissen has pointed out that the drug called "Avandia" has a risk of Heart Attack, while treating the Diabetes. My mother takes this drug, I asked her to stop taking it and take alternative after his report in medical journal. Thanks Dr.Nissen. Glaxo-Smithkline, producer of Avandia, denied such report.

Earlier he warned for Vioxx (later Merck agreed), Pargluva, Natrecor, and few more. He and his team making interesting study about how drug affect our body. Dr. Nissen has a strong record as an early and ultimately accurate critic on drug safety.

Is China good for us, California?

On May 9, 2007, at the Mark Hopkins Hotel in San Francisco, a delegation of Chinese business leaders from more than 200 Chinese companies kicked off their visit to the U.S. by signing contracts committing them to buy more than $3 billion worth of California-produced high technology products. This company include Oracle, Cisco, Qualcomm, HP, Lam Research, KLA Tencor, Variant, Applied Materials, Paramount forms and few others.

We have a huge trade deficit against China. This is a little gift of doing so. Our (California) export to China is 10B compare to 5.5B in 2003. Last year they have a record surplus. They want US economy in good shape, to make sure that, they make both Consumer and Corporate America happy. Consumer sentiment they control using Treasury they buy enough to keep rate low; and Corporate by doing business and buying products.

The growth of the economy of the People's Republic of China has been remarkable. By the end of 2008, China is predicted (measured by exchange rate) to overtake Germany as the third largest economy. China's global trade exceeded $1.758 trillion at the end of 2006.

This is good for Govt. and people of California, at it reduce the tax liabilities to certain extnent.

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Bravo! Ron Paul

In the GOP Presidential Debate there was something unusual happened. Republican Congress men Sam Paul stand out and blame US Foreign Policy for the 9/11 attack. Actually he has not said anything new, it was already there in the 9/11 Commission Report and CIA Report. Here is the executive summary of it. He said brilliantly in his answer that 9/11 event would not have occurred if we did not have our base in Middle East. Our base now in Iraq is more than the Vetican City. Further he said that What if China want to build base on our country what do we do? He also said that we make Bin Landen very happy by sending troop to Iraq. That make him very easy to kill American (so far 3400 troop killed) than attack in US. Rudy Giuliani was very upset and angry about it, he acted like he is president of GOP (is he?) and he asked to take the statement back, and he didn't.

Another topic, he said that he get rid of lot of extra taxes, one he mention inflation tax. He said, we are printing money for the war and give the money to wall street. So this will increase inflation where rich getting richer and poor getting poor.

Most of the American will hate him but to me his every answer was great.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Stock Market Return

Most of the financial analyst and guru would say it always make sense to invest in stock market for a long time. That means do not look your portfolio for short time check every 5 year or so and you will be richer. Yes its true it happens stock market (S$P 500) from 1950's to now return almost avg 11% annualy, and so what Dow. It is very important to know that its not the stock you own its the index. The index mean they remove underpeformer company and add good performing company. For example, there is only one stock in Dow since the begining and that is GE. So over the time most of the company in Dow was out of the business. So, if you do with individual stock you may not get that return.

Now the same though has a different angle. Barron's reported these stock market returns:

1901-1921, real returns averaged 0.2%/year
1929-1949, real returns averaged 0.4%/year
1966-1986, real returns averaged 1.9%/year

So avg 1% return for 60 years mentioned above. Sure, there were more substantial gains from 1921-1929, 1950-1965, and 1987-2000, but for more than 60% of the time in the 20th Century, the stock market returned an average of less than one percent.Then there's the matter of the large negative performance so far this century.

So what they says "Time does not matter" or "Don't time the market", I have to think twice.

Monday, May 14, 2007

Do something better than it's been done before

Yes that's (one of ) the formula to become wealthy according to Smart money article. Human basic characteristics are to protect, collaborate and to become adaptable. Those who don't cannot survive. Well, I don't mean we die soon but we live measurably. This theory can also apply to individual to become successful. We all do work everyday, sometimes same thing. Then, we should ask the question, "Have I done better than it has been done before?" If we cannot answer most probably we don't. If we can answer we are on track of increasing the productivity. Productivity is the measure of increase in the wealth. It is a the leading indication, you can see what will happen. IMO, wealth does not necessarily means money. But its the term I use for happiness. Money make you happy but that's not only thing make you happy. Does it influence? Sure it is. Anyway, other thing we need is the openness, don't think we are right, because most of the time we are not. If you stop listening different opinion you cannot grow your brain your thinking will never change. You cannot do better solely on your thinking you constantly need input in your brain and learn from the past.

This is what Charles Darwin says "It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. "

And this is what Benjamin Franklin says

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."