Over the past year I saw many company went out of the business. If Globalization enables corporate to increase the profit, it also trigger bankruptcy. The company has to change the model or a way they do the business.
In the technology and pharmaceutical, many company went out of business or acquired/merged. Software is very sensitive to the downturn of the economy, and so is hardware. Small software company can grow faster but at some point they rely on consulting services or support business, which has low margin. So they cannot spend money in R&D. On the other hand, hardware company has very low margin it is really difficult to sustain profitable. Many e-commerce company also went out of business during .com bubble.
Interestingly, in the retail lot of company either change the business model or went out of business. I saw circuit city stop selling appliances. Kmart, Montogomery Ward (both are 50+ year old company) went out of business. Recently few more on the list Levitz, CompUSA, Drug Emporeum. HD Supply closing lot of stores and so what Sears.
From the investment perspective, we have to watch how company changes the business model over the time. They have to be agile and reinvent themselves or it will be really difficult to sustain in the business. Same thing apply to the small business, in this category it has highest percentage of the bankruptcy.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Saturday, October 06, 2007
Do not worry about Recession
Recession is a single word that scare everybody from President to Factory Worker.
What has happen in past 10 years is that American has created a lot of wealth due to Globalization and Innovation. This are the only two factor one can get rich. I discuss in my earlier post based on Bill Gross finding.
One can be rich by innovation, not necessarily in products and services but any thing to leverage the fortune. For example, CDO, (Financial innovation in 2005) make company like Blackstone lot of money. The second reason to get wealthy is to know how to use others people money. This is a broad topic and I cannot cover in detail here, but simple example would be Mortgage loan. This is wonderful instrument for anyone to make wealthy and rich. I will cover someday how to become rich and retire early.
Now lets talk about Recession, which generally refers to slowing in Economic Activity, such as Spending, Employment, and some other macro economic factors. Lets looks at Employment which is currently 4.5%, if it goes up to 6% still its not bad. There could be a mental distraction in the market but overall still not bad. The other big factor driving the economy is Spending, and it could be Consumer Spending and Corporate Spending (Capex). Consumer contribute 70% and Capex contribute 30% of GDP. As far as Capex go it can go down let say 20%, still its not bad if consumer keep spending. This is what happen in 2001-2002.
Now, what if consumer fall back on spending this will certainly cause the recession. But the key point I am trying to explain here I still have not heard/read from anyone yet, may be I am wrong.
Consumer spending will slow down if housing market goes down, intrest rate goes up or unemployment goes up. Nothing new here. How much it can go down? Not much. I mean it. As I mention earlier that consumer wealth went up significantly during past 10 years due to Stock Market went up, Employment remains low, Low Interest Rate for long time, Housing market was up, and probably some other reason. Here is the proof.
As you can see, Top 20% of American has 90% of total wealth. Or top 1% has 40% of the total wealth. It means that they (wealthy) drive 80% of people. This number is based on 2001, so by 2007 this number could go much higher, because this are the people who do investment. If there is big problem in 80% of people, 20% are somewhat affected. So when you talk about the spending this (20%) are people who significantly spend compare to other 80%. If something goes wrong, probably this 80% will spend less in Vacation, Travel, and some other discretionary spending. How much that could be very little compare to the 20% group.
Net.Net. Limited Spending and 6% unemployment would not cause the recession.
What has happen in past 10 years is that American has created a lot of wealth due to Globalization and Innovation. This are the only two factor one can get rich. I discuss in my earlier post based on Bill Gross finding.
One can be rich by innovation, not necessarily in products and services but any thing to leverage the fortune. For example, CDO, (Financial innovation in 2005) make company like Blackstone lot of money. The second reason to get wealthy is to know how to use others people money. This is a broad topic and I cannot cover in detail here, but simple example would be Mortgage loan. This is wonderful instrument for anyone to make wealthy and rich. I will cover someday how to become rich and retire early.
Now lets talk about Recession, which generally refers to slowing in Economic Activity, such as Spending, Employment, and some other macro economic factors. Lets looks at Employment which is currently 4.5%, if it goes up to 6% still its not bad. There could be a mental distraction in the market but overall still not bad. The other big factor driving the economy is Spending, and it could be Consumer Spending and Corporate Spending (Capex). Consumer contribute 70% and Capex contribute 30% of GDP. As far as Capex go it can go down let say 20%, still its not bad if consumer keep spending. This is what happen in 2001-2002.
Now, what if consumer fall back on spending this will certainly cause the recession. But the key point I am trying to explain here I still have not heard/read from anyone yet, may be I am wrong.
Consumer spending will slow down if housing market goes down, intrest rate goes up or unemployment goes up. Nothing new here. How much it can go down? Not much. I mean it. As I mention earlier that consumer wealth went up significantly during past 10 years due to Stock Market went up, Employment remains low, Low Interest Rate for long time, Housing market was up, and probably some other reason. Here is the proof.
As you can see, Top 20% of American has 90% of total wealth. Or top 1% has 40% of the total wealth. It means that they (wealthy) drive 80% of people. This number is based on 2001, so by 2007 this number could go much higher, because this are the people who do investment. If there is big problem in 80% of people, 20% are somewhat affected. So when you talk about the spending this (20%) are people who significantly spend compare to other 80%. If something goes wrong, probably this 80% will spend less in Vacation, Travel, and some other discretionary spending. How much that could be very little compare to the 20% group.
Net.Net. Limited Spending and 6% unemployment would not cause the recession.
12 Pillars of Financial Freedom
The 12 Pillars of Wisdom.
Indeed, these twelve sensible guidelines to successful investing are lessons that investors should have learned before the bear market arrived, but that many are only learning now. Bull markets come and bull markets go, inevitably followed by bear markets, which too come and go. But these pillars of wisdom are timeless, and should serve us well in all seasons.
John Bogle
Pillar 1. Investing Is Not Nearly as Difficult as It Looks.
The intelligent investor in mutual funds, using common sense and without extraordinary financial acumen, can perform with the pros. In a world where financial markets are highly efficient, there is absolutely no reason that careful and disciplined novices—those who know the rudiments but lack the experience—cannot hold their own or even surpass the long-term returns earned by professional investors as a group. Successful investing involves doing just a few things right and avoiding serious mistakes.
Pillar 2. When All Else Fails, Fall Back on Simplicity.
There are an infinite number of strategies worse than this one: Commit, over a period of a few years, half of your assets to a stock index fund and half to a bond index fund. Ignore interim fluctuations in their net asset values. Hold your positions for as long as you live, subject only to infrequent and marginal adjustments as your circumstances change. When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one.
Pillar 3. Time Marches On.
Time dramatically enhances capital accumulation as the magic of compounding accelerates. At an annual return of +10%, the total value of the initial $10,000 investment is $108,000, at the end of 25 years, nearly a tenfold increase in value. Give yourself the benefit of all the time you can possibly afford.
Pillar 4. Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained.
It pays to take reasonable interim risks in the search for higher long-term rates of return. The magic of compounding accelerates sharply with even modest increases in annual rate of return. While an investment of $10,000 earning an annual return of +10% grows to a value of $108,000 over 25 years, at +12% the final value is $170,000. The difference of $62,000 is more than six times the initial investment itself.
Pillar 5. Diversify, Diversify, Diversify.
By owning a broadly diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, specific security risk is eliminated. Only market risk remains. This risk is reflected in the volatility of your portfolio and should take care of itself over time as returns are compounded.
Pillar 6. The Eternal Triangle.
Never forget that risk, return, and cost are the three sides of the eternal triangle of investing. Remember also that the cost penalty may sharply erode the risk premium to which an investor is entitled. You should understand unequivocally that investing in a fund with a relatively high expense ratio—more than 0.50% per year for a money market fund, 0.75% for a bond fund, 1.00% for a regular equity fund—bears careful examination. Unless you are confident that the higher costs you incur are justified by higher expected returns, select your investments from among the lower-cost no-load funds.
Pillar 7. The Powerful Magnetism of the Mean
In the world of investing, the mean is a powerful magnet that pulls financial market returns toward it, causing returns to deteriorate after they exceed historical norms by substantial margins and to improve after they fall short. Reversion to the mean is a manifestation of the immutable law of averages that prevails, sooner or later, in the financial jungle.
Pillar 8. Do Not Overestimate Your Ability to Pick Superior Equity Mutual Funds, nor Underestimate Your Ability to Pick Superior Bond and Money Market Funds.
In selecting equity funds, no analysis of the past, no matter how painstaking, assures future superiority. In general, you should settle for a solid mainstream equity fund in which the action of the stock market itself explains about 85% or more of the fund’s return, or an low-cost index fund (100% explained by the market). But do not approach the selection of bond and money market funds with the same skepticism. Selecting the better funds in these categories on the basis of their comparative costs holds remarkably favorable prospects for success.
Pillar 9. You May Have a Stable Principal Value or a Stable Income Stream, But You May Not Have Both.
Contrast a money market fund—with its volatile income stream and fixed value—and a long-term government bond fund—with its relatively fixed income stream and extraordinarily volatile market value. Intelligent investing involves choices, compromises, and trade-offs, and your own financial position should determine the most suitable combination for your portfolio.
Pillar 10. Beware of "Fighting the Last War."
Too many investors—individuals and institutions alike—are constantly making investment decisions based on the lessons of the recent, or even the extended, past. They seek stocks after stocks have emerged victorious from the last war, bonds after bonds have won. They worry about the impact of inflation after inflation, having turned high real returns into so-so nominal returns, has become the accepted bogeyman. You should not ignore the past, but neither should you assume that a particular cyclical trend will last forever. None does.
Pillar 11. You Rarely, If Ever, Know Something The Market Does Not.
If you are worried about the coming bear market, excited about the coming bull market, fearful about the prospect of war, or concerned about the economy, the election, or indeed the state of mankind, in all probability your opinions are already reflected in the market. The financial markets reflect the knowledge, the hopes, the fears, even the greed, of all investors everywhere. It is nearly always unwise to act on insights that you think are your own but are in fact shared by millions of others.
Pillar 12. Think Long-Term.
Do not let transitory changes in stock prices alter your investment program. There is a lot of noise in the daily volatility of the stock market, which too often is "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Stocks may remain overvalued, or undervalued, for years. Patience and consistency are valuable assets for the intelligent investor. The best rule: Stay the Course.
Indeed, these twelve sensible guidelines to successful investing are lessons that investors should have learned before the bear market arrived, but that many are only learning now. Bull markets come and bull markets go, inevitably followed by bear markets, which too come and go. But these pillars of wisdom are timeless, and should serve us well in all seasons.
John Bogle
Pillar 1. Investing Is Not Nearly as Difficult as It Looks.
The intelligent investor in mutual funds, using common sense and without extraordinary financial acumen, can perform with the pros. In a world where financial markets are highly efficient, there is absolutely no reason that careful and disciplined novices—those who know the rudiments but lack the experience—cannot hold their own or even surpass the long-term returns earned by professional investors as a group. Successful investing involves doing just a few things right and avoiding serious mistakes.
Pillar 2. When All Else Fails, Fall Back on Simplicity.
There are an infinite number of strategies worse than this one: Commit, over a period of a few years, half of your assets to a stock index fund and half to a bond index fund. Ignore interim fluctuations in their net asset values. Hold your positions for as long as you live, subject only to infrequent and marginal adjustments as your circumstances change. When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one.
Pillar 3. Time Marches On.
Time dramatically enhances capital accumulation as the magic of compounding accelerates. At an annual return of +10%, the total value of the initial $10,000 investment is $108,000, at the end of 25 years, nearly a tenfold increase in value. Give yourself the benefit of all the time you can possibly afford.
Pillar 4. Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained.
It pays to take reasonable interim risks in the search for higher long-term rates of return. The magic of compounding accelerates sharply with even modest increases in annual rate of return. While an investment of $10,000 earning an annual return of +10% grows to a value of $108,000 over 25 years, at +12% the final value is $170,000. The difference of $62,000 is more than six times the initial investment itself.
Pillar 5. Diversify, Diversify, Diversify.
By owning a broadly diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, specific security risk is eliminated. Only market risk remains. This risk is reflected in the volatility of your portfolio and should take care of itself over time as returns are compounded.
Pillar 6. The Eternal Triangle.
Never forget that risk, return, and cost are the three sides of the eternal triangle of investing. Remember also that the cost penalty may sharply erode the risk premium to which an investor is entitled. You should understand unequivocally that investing in a fund with a relatively high expense ratio—more than 0.50% per year for a money market fund, 0.75% for a bond fund, 1.00% for a regular equity fund—bears careful examination. Unless you are confident that the higher costs you incur are justified by higher expected returns, select your investments from among the lower-cost no-load funds.
Pillar 7. The Powerful Magnetism of the Mean
In the world of investing, the mean is a powerful magnet that pulls financial market returns toward it, causing returns to deteriorate after they exceed historical norms by substantial margins and to improve after they fall short. Reversion to the mean is a manifestation of the immutable law of averages that prevails, sooner or later, in the financial jungle.
Pillar 8. Do Not Overestimate Your Ability to Pick Superior Equity Mutual Funds, nor Underestimate Your Ability to Pick Superior Bond and Money Market Funds.
In selecting equity funds, no analysis of the past, no matter how painstaking, assures future superiority. In general, you should settle for a solid mainstream equity fund in which the action of the stock market itself explains about 85% or more of the fund’s return, or an low-cost index fund (100% explained by the market). But do not approach the selection of bond and money market funds with the same skepticism. Selecting the better funds in these categories on the basis of their comparative costs holds remarkably favorable prospects for success.
Pillar 9. You May Have a Stable Principal Value or a Stable Income Stream, But You May Not Have Both.
Contrast a money market fund—with its volatile income stream and fixed value—and a long-term government bond fund—with its relatively fixed income stream and extraordinarily volatile market value. Intelligent investing involves choices, compromises, and trade-offs, and your own financial position should determine the most suitable combination for your portfolio.
Pillar 10. Beware of "Fighting the Last War."
Too many investors—individuals and institutions alike—are constantly making investment decisions based on the lessons of the recent, or even the extended, past. They seek stocks after stocks have emerged victorious from the last war, bonds after bonds have won. They worry about the impact of inflation after inflation, having turned high real returns into so-so nominal returns, has become the accepted bogeyman. You should not ignore the past, but neither should you assume that a particular cyclical trend will last forever. None does.
Pillar 11. You Rarely, If Ever, Know Something The Market Does Not.
If you are worried about the coming bear market, excited about the coming bull market, fearful about the prospect of war, or concerned about the economy, the election, or indeed the state of mankind, in all probability your opinions are already reflected in the market. The financial markets reflect the knowledge, the hopes, the fears, even the greed, of all investors everywhere. It is nearly always unwise to act on insights that you think are your own but are in fact shared by millions of others.
Pillar 12. Think Long-Term.
Do not let transitory changes in stock prices alter your investment program. There is a lot of noise in the daily volatility of the stock market, which too often is "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Stocks may remain overvalued, or undervalued, for years. Patience and consistency are valuable assets for the intelligent investor. The best rule: Stay the Course.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Confidence builds your life
Generally speaking confidence is good in terms of result you achieve from the task you are doing. However there is no real way to measure it. Of course you can measure with the result of your past action. But again, that really don't tell the ability of controlling the result of the future action. So you may be over confidence. When you reach at that level, I mean over-confidence, your sense of learning, listening, planning will go away. This make significant fall back for your personal growth.
One of the best think of being child is their ability to learn and listen and apply those to the life. That the reason you see growth in the child. They tried different things. They listen to the different source, ask questions and so forth.
I was listening a lecture from one Hindu Saint in the temple, last week. She was talking about this subject. She explains how to find you are in overconfidence. She said, if you are leaving all your work at the end than their are high chances that you are in over confidence. Another one is, you do not apply different approaches to try things out. I think it means you are not listening. And, my favorite is, you think your are right. She further said that when you do that and fails, you internally get upset, angry and try to find a way to blame others. And then eventually your find yourself in pressure and you put others in the pressure too. This make lot of personal problem in terms of efficiency, health and wealth. Yes, this will certainly hurt your financial as well.
SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Any overconfidence in your ability, willingness and need to take risk may be hazardous to your health.
Confidence build your life and ruins too.
One of the best think of being child is their ability to learn and listen and apply those to the life. That the reason you see growth in the child. They tried different things. They listen to the different source, ask questions and so forth.
I was listening a lecture from one Hindu Saint in the temple, last week. She was talking about this subject. She explains how to find you are in overconfidence. She said, if you are leaving all your work at the end than their are high chances that you are in over confidence. Another one is, you do not apply different approaches to try things out. I think it means you are not listening. And, my favorite is, you think your are right. She further said that when you do that and fails, you internally get upset, angry and try to find a way to blame others. And then eventually your find yourself in pressure and you put others in the pressure too. This make lot of personal problem in terms of efficiency, health and wealth. Yes, this will certainly hurt your financial as well.
SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Any overconfidence in your ability, willingness and need to take risk may be hazardous to your health.
Confidence build your life and ruins too.
Sunday, August 26, 2007
Payoff Mortgage. Oh no. Never.
I alway get to explain what I think, I don't want to, but here is why one should not pay off the mortgage.
First let's ask question to yourself:
1. Are you paying of so that you can sleep well? If yes, No argument go ahead. But look for #2.
2. Are you going to invest the interest you save every month? If yes, great you might be ok.
3. Are you able to get (Mortgage Rate + (Mortgate Rate * Tax Rate / 100) return of investment? If yes you better not pay your mortgage. For example, 6% mortgage rate, 25% tax rate, you will need 7.5% return.
Now lets look into more detail.
Lets say you earn 50k a year. And your mortgage is $1000/month. Let's assume you get a raise 3% a year. That means your salary will be 100k in 24 years. So after 24 year, you pay $1000/month even though your salary is double. So basically you pay $500 of todays money.
Now let look in a different way i.e. inflation. If inflation is 3% that mean the cost of the goods you purchase will increase at the rate of 3%. That mean the thing you buy for $1 will cost you $2 after 24 years. For example, today Burrito cost $1 at Taco Bell. Lets say if we want to pay the mortgage with burrito. For simplicity lets say 1 burrito = $1000. So based on the above situation you have to give one burrito to bank today every month. After 24 years, $1 can buy half burrito. So you have to give bank half burrito and other half you eat rather than bank eat your whole burrito.
So if you keep mortgage you are paying the debt with cheaper dollar, because $1000 is not $1000 tomorrow. It will always (well most of the time unless we hit deflation) less tomorrow.
Few other reasons are some basic financial freedom rules, such as always keep money on your side, you will need if something go out of whack, e.g your health, financial debacle etc. You need money in this case and owning house wont' give you money. You can sell it, but hey you will get price at that time whether its up or down and you wont get immediately. House is not considered as a liquid asset.
Furthermore, you certainly don't want to payoff at the second half period, as you are paying interest less to the bank.
I hope it make sense.
First let's ask question to yourself:
1. Are you paying of so that you can sleep well? If yes, No argument go ahead. But look for #2.
2. Are you going to invest the interest you save every month? If yes, great you might be ok.
3. Are you able to get (Mortgage Rate + (Mortgate Rate * Tax Rate / 100) return of investment? If yes you better not pay your mortgage. For example, 6% mortgage rate, 25% tax rate, you will need 7.5% return.
Now lets look into more detail.
Lets say you earn 50k a year. And your mortgage is $1000/month. Let's assume you get a raise 3% a year. That means your salary will be 100k in 24 years. So after 24 year, you pay $1000/month even though your salary is double. So basically you pay $500 of todays money.
Now let look in a different way i.e. inflation. If inflation is 3% that mean the cost of the goods you purchase will increase at the rate of 3%. That mean the thing you buy for $1 will cost you $2 after 24 years. For example, today Burrito cost $1 at Taco Bell. Lets say if we want to pay the mortgage with burrito. For simplicity lets say 1 burrito = $1000. So based on the above situation you have to give one burrito to bank today every month. After 24 years, $1 can buy half burrito. So you have to give bank half burrito and other half you eat rather than bank eat your whole burrito.
So if you keep mortgage you are paying the debt with cheaper dollar, because $1000 is not $1000 tomorrow. It will always (well most of the time unless we hit deflation) less tomorrow.
Few other reasons are some basic financial freedom rules, such as always keep money on your side, you will need if something go out of whack, e.g your health, financial debacle etc. You need money in this case and owning house wont' give you money. You can sell it, but hey you will get price at that time whether its up or down and you wont get immediately. House is not considered as a liquid asset.
Furthermore, you certainly don't want to payoff at the second half period, as you are paying interest less to the bank.
I hope it make sense.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Is Countrywide Rescued?
Fed Surprised decision to reduce the discount rate to 5.75 will help a bank like Countrywide to borrow the money that they have to borrow through Line of Credit which is 10-11%.
With the help of discount window they can put the mortgaged based collateral, MBS, CDO etc to get the money from the Fed for 5.75%. And, Fed encouraged Bank to use this rate to solve the liquidity problem.
It could be temporary solve the problem, as the CDO which nobody worth how much it is, Fed will give money on those collateral. Within 30 days, the Fed will have meeting and will reduce the target rate to 5% which further solve the problem. BTW, the CDO is the biggest joke of the century, created by Wallstreet some of the hedge fund and Retirement fund has bought this securities. They have no clue what this worth; and none of the others. Funny thing is European Countries, China, Korea etc are fooled baught this thinking AAA rating, they will loose money that they invested with their surplus. They will learn the lesson.
This is Bush like step, where they try to rescue corporate, and some wall street nitwiz who make a mistake and want to bail them out. Lot of rich people has money in the hedge fund they will be bailed out at the cost of "inflation", which average Joe is suffering.
Another thing I suspect is the "news" that fed will redue the rate was come out on Thrusday during the late market hour, which keep market goes up on that day.
With the help of discount window they can put the mortgaged based collateral, MBS, CDO etc to get the money from the Fed for 5.75%. And, Fed encouraged Bank to use this rate to solve the liquidity problem.
It could be temporary solve the problem, as the CDO which nobody worth how much it is, Fed will give money on those collateral. Within 30 days, the Fed will have meeting and will reduce the target rate to 5% which further solve the problem. BTW, the CDO is the biggest joke of the century, created by Wallstreet some of the hedge fund and Retirement fund has bought this securities. They have no clue what this worth; and none of the others. Funny thing is European Countries, China, Korea etc are fooled baught this thinking AAA rating, they will loose money that they invested with their surplus. They will learn the lesson.
This is Bush like step, where they try to rescue corporate, and some wall street nitwiz who make a mistake and want to bail them out. Lot of rich people has money in the hedge fund they will be bailed out at the cost of "inflation", which average Joe is suffering.
Another thing I suspect is the "news" that fed will redue the rate was come out on Thrusday during the late market hour, which keep market goes up on that day.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Why we need to own the house?
Here is what I think after owning the house for 10 years.
1. The home make us proud. If you own the car you take care and drive better than rent one. Just like that, house is you will keep more clean and organized than you live in apartment. You like to go to home. When you are in the house you fill pride and ownership.
2. Children has more space to explore and do the other thing which is hard in apartment. They love hiding in the closet, playing in the backyard. You raise better children in house than in apartment. The mentality of the children changed in unnoticed way. After all, its all about thinking.
3. You spend more time with family than you were in apartment, in apartment you do nothing, watch tv and that it, in your own house you fix something, spend time on it, learn lot of thing, have party, stuff like that. You always been busy thinking what to do? Where to put the stuff? How would we organize? How to decorate?
4. You have a little status in the society of owning the house. People look you with a different angle. It does not really matter but this think help sometimes. Your lifestyle is better.
5. Home ownership enforces financial discipline, something people may not have. So if you are not good at investing buying house absolutely make sense. The whole idea is you pay more earlier and pay way below later. It take very long view, as it is life long investment.
Even though, some of the bill is higher than in apartment, this is one way to become wealthy. Every millionaire bought their first house earlier in the life.
1. The home make us proud. If you own the car you take care and drive better than rent one. Just like that, house is you will keep more clean and organized than you live in apartment. You like to go to home. When you are in the house you fill pride and ownership.
2. Children has more space to explore and do the other thing which is hard in apartment. They love hiding in the closet, playing in the backyard. You raise better children in house than in apartment. The mentality of the children changed in unnoticed way. After all, its all about thinking.
3. You spend more time with family than you were in apartment, in apartment you do nothing, watch tv and that it, in your own house you fix something, spend time on it, learn lot of thing, have party, stuff like that. You always been busy thinking what to do? Where to put the stuff? How would we organize? How to decorate?
4. You have a little status in the society of owning the house. People look you with a different angle. It does not really matter but this think help sometimes. Your lifestyle is better.
5. Home ownership enforces financial discipline, something people may not have. So if you are not good at investing buying house absolutely make sense. The whole idea is you pay more earlier and pay way below later. It take very long view, as it is life long investment.
Even though, some of the bill is higher than in apartment, this is one way to become wealthy. Every millionaire bought their first house earlier in the life.
Friday, August 10, 2007
VMWare IPO : Analysis
VMWare is coming out public on Aug 13, 2007. It is a spin out from EMC, but EMC still have control over the company through equity.
Symbol: VMW
Price expected: $29/share
Amount to raise: $957M
Share Outstanding: 365M (detail below)
326.5 M (EMC Owned, 26.5M Class A, 300M Class B) i.e. 87%
4.x M : Sale to broker for option
4.xM : Owner by INTC (2.5%), CSCO (1.6%)
33 M : Going to Public for $29/Share
Symbol: VMW
Price expected: $29/share
Amount to raise: $957M
Share Outstanding: 365M (detail below)
326.5 M (EMC Owned, 26.5M Class A, 300M Class B) i.e. 87%
4.x M : Sale to broker for option
4.xM : Owner by INTC (2.5%), CSCO (1.6%)
33 M : Going to Public for $29/Share
- Raising almost 1B, they will use to payoff the debt of 350M, rest for general operation.
- They are growing at the rate of 100%, as per last qtr
- The market cap of the company will be 10.xB at the price of $29
- They are buying building from EMC which is located in Palo Alto, for around 150M
- They do not own any other building, all are leased or subleased.
- They were baught out by EMC in 2004 for $650M (now worth 10B, wow)
- FY2006, they earn 87M or 26c/share, with the revenue of approx 705M
- Last qtr they earned 34M (last qtr: 15M), with the revenue of 297M, 98% more than last year same qtr
My Estimate: The expected earning for FY2007 is $0.50-0.70 on the revenue of 1.2-1.3B. With the lower end expectation and offering price ($29), the stock is IPO at 60PE. IMO, VMW worth $50 based FY08 earning expectation.
Disclaimer: This is just my analysis. It do not represent the opinions on whether to buy, sell or hold shares of a particular stock. Please buy/sell/hold on your own risk. I am not responsible for any loss you may have, please contact your financial advisor for investment risk of IPO stock. All investors are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. I do not have any relation with the company or employee of the compnay. This finding is based on the news I read and S-1 filing registration statement.
Monday, August 06, 2007
What will be the Fed next move?
There are lot out credit problem out there and buble in credit market pop out. The financial market and brokerage are feeling pressure from the sub prime market. First, Amarnath, then Blackstone, Bearsterns, Countrywide and list goes on. While most of the anlayst think the fed will keep rate unchage or some think higher, I think they will reduce rate. There is no inflation at overall level. I mean they have to reduce the rate to slowly brust this bubble than big noise. I hope Mr. Ben and company get it.
I keep my finguer cross.
Update 7/8/07, 4:00pm PST
Ok, I was wrong.
Fed did not listen the song of sirens. May be Fed are right about not to reduce the rate. They do not want to bail out some Company who made a wrong call. After all its there business wrong call loose money, poor Bear Stern.
I keep my finguer cross.
Update 7/8/07, 4:00pm PST
Ok, I was wrong.
Fed did not listen the song of sirens. May be Fed are right about not to reduce the rate. They do not want to bail out some Company who made a wrong call. After all its there business wrong call loose money, poor Bear Stern.
Saturday, August 04, 2007
What should the average investor pay attention to?
"If the Dow and the overall market fall 5 to 10%, and you feel compelled to sell, don't invest in the stock market. These drops are normal. They happen every 12 to 15 months and you need to have the stomach to ride them out.
If you worry about what the market will do in the next 6 to 12 months, you are not investing. You are gambling. Some of my best stocks paid off handsomely in three years, some in five. In every case, earnings made the difference.
So focus on earnings more than fluctuations. Corporate earnings drive the stock market. Yes, other influences impact stock prices, especially over a short period: the influx of money, even tragic or shocking events, can have an effect, but ultimately earnings decide.
As for predicting the future, I've always said that I don't know which way the next 1,000 or 2,000 points in the Dow may go, but I know something about corporate profits.
If they match the historic pattern of the last 50 years, corporate profits double every 10, quadruple every 20, and go up 8-fold in 30 years (based on 7% per year growth). This has been the history of the per-share earnings of the S&P 500.®
That's why I believe that the Dow's next 10,000 or 20,000 or 30,000 will be up." said Peter Lynch, Fidelity.
The market appears to adjust (bad and good news) so quickly to information about individual stocks and the economy as a whole that no technique of selecting a portfolio — neither technical nor fundamental analysis — can consistently outperform a strategy of simply buying and holding a diversified group of securities.
Friday, August 03, 2007
Good Books for Reading
A Random Walk Down Wall Street, by Burton G. Malkiel
If you haven't read this investment classic yet, now's the time. Princeton professor and former Vanguard board member Burton Malkiel has revised and updated his investment primer for the eighth time, showing why investors historically can't beat the stock market and including a new section on the dot-com boom and bust. Read an interview with the author.
Winning the Loser's Game, by Charles D. Ellis
Written by Charles D. Ellis, senior advisor to Greenwich Associates, member of Applecore Partners, and Vanguard board member, this insightful, accessible guide to how the financial markets work—and how to put them to work for you—was described by legendary management expert Peter Drucker as "by far the best book on investment policy and management."
Straight Talk on Investing: What You Need to Know, by Jack Brennan
Vanguard's chairman and CEO shares insights on building wealth that he's learned from clients and crew members in his 25 years at Vanguard. He provides sensible advice on how to build and manage a portfolio and reveals some common things that push investors off track.
Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor, by John C. Bogle
In his second book, Vanguard's founder provides timeless investment wisdom in his characteristic hard-hitting style. Through a series of essays, he spells out commonsense principles for novice and sophisticated investors alike.
The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing, by Taylor Larimore, Mel Lindauer, and Michael LeBoeuf
Written by three longtime Vanguard investors, this witty, commonsense guide to investing grew out of the authors' participation in the Vanguard Diehards message board on Morningstar.com. It includes a foreword by Vanguard founder John C. Bogle, from whom the self-described "Bogleheads" take their name.
The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio, by William Bernstein
Whether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, you'll appreciate William Bernstein's sage, straightforward guidance on creating a portfolio that can weather the market's long-term ups and downs. His key thesis—that it's usually impossible to beat the market by chasing performance or market timing—dovetails nicely with Vanguard's philosophy.
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing, by Benjamin Graham, updated by Jason Zweig
First published in 1949, this classic has sold more than a million copies. Senior Money magazine editor Jason Zweig bolsters the wisdom of Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, with additional commentary in footnotes and updates relating to newer investment vehicles and trends.
Wealth of Experience: Real Investors on What Works and What Doesn't, by Andrew S. Clarke, with a foreword by Jack Brennan
Based on interviews and survey responses from more than 600 Vanguard shareholders, this book distills the experience and wisdom of ordinary investors into a simple plan that can help you enhance your prospects for long-term success and avoid major financial mistakes.
Books on retirement and financial planning
Mind Over Money: Your Path to Wealth and Happiness, by Eric Tyson
The author of Mutual Funds for Dummies, Personal Finance for Dummies, and several other titles offers indispensable guidance on how to avoid the most common mistakes Americans make with money—such as spending too much of it—and how to change the way you think about wealth. Listen to an interview with the author.
Smart and Simple Financial Strategies for Busy People, by Jane Bryant Quinn
One of America's preeminent writers on investing and personal finance, Jane Bryant Quinn has helped make the markets a less mysterious place for millions of investors. In her new book—described by former Vanguard board member Burton G. Malkiel as "encyclopedic in scope and written with clarity and style"—Ms. Quinn outlines her "No Worry" strategy for money management. It's a simple, easy-to-follow approach designed to help Americans save more, reduce debt, and invest wisely.
The Power Years: A User's Guide to the Rest of Your Life, by Ken Dychtwald, Ph.D., and Daniel J. Kadlec
In the future, "retirement" will be more than just a life of golf, travel, and leisure. Dr. Ken Dychtwald, a leading expert on aging and the baby boomer generation, and Daniel Kadlec, a Time magazine columnist, will help you get ready for perhaps the best years of your life—where "old age" is instead a vibrant new age full of activity and personal reinvention. Read an interview with the author.
The Savage Number: How Much Money Do You Need to Retire? by Terry Savage
Chicago Sun-Times personal finance columnist Terry Savage's latest book answers one of pre-retirees' most common questions. Her plainspoken style helps make sense of the increasingly popular financial forecasting technique of Monte Carlo modeling and explains how to grow and draw down your assets to help make sure they last throughout your retirement.
How to Retire Happy: The 12 Most Important Decisions You Must Make Before You Retire, by Stan Hinden
Retired Washington Post financial columnist Stan Hinden covers 12 crucial decisions for those getting ready to retire, such as when to take Social Security and what to do about health insurance. Read an interview with the author.
Retirement Bible, by Lynn O'Shaughnessy
Whether you're in your 20s or 60s, single or married, work in a big corporation or own a small business, you'll find most answers to your retirement-planning questions in this comprehensive, 500-plus-page resource.
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
Enough is enough.
Ok. I copied the title from the blog from Mr. Bill Gross. I am a fan of him and was reading his post.
It is very interesting what he said : Rich did not get rich through plack and smart, they get rich by taking risk with other people money and low taxes. Warren Buffet only pay 18% tax and keep no tax planner. He further said most of them achived through the capitalism, encouraged innovation and globalization. Today's rich is going too far. I think they went way more in terms of wrong doing such as accounting fraud, insider information, false statements, manipulate the system, etc.
He pointed out that when the rich became richer and miidle/lower class are struggling then the system ultimately break down. It is enough and it is time to raise the tax for the Rich. Especially when the Rich are draining the money by having multiple vacation home, private plane, million dollar birthday party, inhertiance for the grand kids, ego centric donation to concert hall and art museum. On the other hand, US goverment is in deficit affecting millions of innocent household.
Isn't it enough.?
It is very interesting what he said : Rich did not get rich through plack and smart, they get rich by taking risk with other people money and low taxes. Warren Buffet only pay 18% tax and keep no tax planner. He further said most of them achived through the capitalism, encouraged innovation and globalization. Today's rich is going too far. I think they went way more in terms of wrong doing such as accounting fraud, insider information, false statements, manipulate the system, etc.
He pointed out that when the rich became richer and miidle/lower class are struggling then the system ultimately break down. It is enough and it is time to raise the tax for the Rich. Especially when the Rich are draining the money by having multiple vacation home, private plane, million dollar birthday party, inhertiance for the grand kids, ego centric donation to concert hall and art museum. On the other hand, US goverment is in deficit affecting millions of innocent household.
Isn't it enough.?
Monday, July 30, 2007
Living modestly is not bad
I was just wondering what people think and give comment based on the lifestyle I live. One think I know that people always comment on the way I spend money i.e finding a deal, that how much could I save every year by doing this? But most of the the time they do not comment they just think different way about myself. It is really tough to swim against the stream.
While I think the big things are important, it is amazing how the little things can add up. You can literally save thousands each year just shopping wisely in the supermarket.
I have 96 Honda, and I am going to drive until it stop running and I am proud of it. I just need to go to work. New car just don't add the value , it will delay my retirement. I know that I can retire early if I desire. I do not require the latest toys and I have learned to enjoy simplicity.
People sometimes ( all the time) does not get the sense of financial stuff. Awhile back I heard someone say that the key to building financial security is being the kind of person who doesn't need all that much to be happy. I think that's very true, at least it's true in my experience. I don't have a big house or a fancy car but I'm pretty content. I don't go out often for the lunch. I don't have a big or latest TV nor laptop or high-tech cell phone. For me the pleasure is the Financial Security; it makes me sleep well. Most of the people in US consider shopping as recreation. They spend lot of money without thinking of retirement.
It's not like I don't enjoy my life and don't spend any money. I do take vacation. I regularly make charitable donation. I do support and help other who has financial problems. I do not set a budget and stick on that budget. I think living within budget is nearly impossible. The things we need we buy it regardless of the cost, and try to keep my family happy.
I am a kind of person if I need something to do on Friday I do it on Monday rather than waiting until Thursday and awake whole night. Retirement is just like that. That means, when people working in their 60s, they do work because they have to. I know for sure that I will smile in my 50s. I am working now because I want best education for my children. I want to teach them the value of money and saving.
Next, I want to save on gas to save the environment, and use the public transportation.
"He who knows he has enough is rich" - Lao Tzu
While I think the big things are important, it is amazing how the little things can add up. You can literally save thousands each year just shopping wisely in the supermarket.
I have 96 Honda, and I am going to drive until it stop running and I am proud of it. I just need to go to work. New car just don't add the value , it will delay my retirement. I know that I can retire early if I desire. I do not require the latest toys and I have learned to enjoy simplicity.
People sometimes ( all the time) does not get the sense of financial stuff. Awhile back I heard someone say that the key to building financial security is being the kind of person who doesn't need all that much to be happy. I think that's very true, at least it's true in my experience. I don't have a big house or a fancy car but I'm pretty content. I don't go out often for the lunch. I don't have a big or latest TV nor laptop or high-tech cell phone. For me the pleasure is the Financial Security; it makes me sleep well. Most of the people in US consider shopping as recreation. They spend lot of money without thinking of retirement.
It's not like I don't enjoy my life and don't spend any money. I do take vacation. I regularly make charitable donation. I do support and help other who has financial problems. I do not set a budget and stick on that budget. I think living within budget is nearly impossible. The things we need we buy it regardless of the cost, and try to keep my family happy.
I am a kind of person if I need something to do on Friday I do it on Monday rather than waiting until Thursday and awake whole night. Retirement is just like that. That means, when people working in their 60s, they do work because they have to. I know for sure that I will smile in my 50s. I am working now because I want best education for my children. I want to teach them the value of money and saving.
Next, I want to save on gas to save the environment, and use the public transportation.
"He who knows he has enough is rich" - Lao Tzu
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Are you drinking bottle water? Think again.
We recently been to the Hetch Hetchy Resourvoir nearYosemite, the place is gorgeous and water is so fresh. It supply water to most of the Bay Area.
While we been there we drink much of a bottle water. After the trip I read a nice article about how the water been commercialized by scaring people.
The full article is here
The Ririan Project gives 10 reasons why drinking water is good for you.
While we been there we drink much of a bottle water. After the trip I read a nice article about how the water been commercialized by scaring people.
Bottled water is the food phenomenon of our times. We--a generation raised on tap water and water fountains--drink a billion bottles of water a week, and we're raising a generation that views tap water with disdain and water fountains with suspicion. We've come to pay good money--two or three or four times the cost of gasoline--for a product we have always gotten, and can still get, for free, from taps in our homes.
We're moving 1 billion bottles of water around a week in ships, trains, and trucks in the United States alone. Water weighs 81/3 pounds a gallon. It's so heavy you can't fill an 18-wheeler with bottled water--you have to leave empty space.
Meanwhile, one out of six people in the world has no dependable, safe drinking water. The global economy has contrived to deny the most fundamental element of life to 1 billion people, while delivering to us an array of water "varieties" from around the globe, not one of which we actually need.The full article is here
The Ririan Project gives 10 reasons why drinking water is good for you.
1 Get Healthy Skin
2 Flush Toxins
3 Reduce Your Risk Of Heart Attack
4 Cushion And Lube Your Joints And Muscles
5 Get Energized And Be Alert
6 Stay Regular
7 Reduce Your Risk Of Disease And Infection
8 Regulate Your Body Temperature
9 Burn More Fat And Build More Muscle
10 Get Well
Friday, July 06, 2007
Sunday, June 24, 2007
American medical system is the leading cause of death in the US
When I wrote about medical treatment in United States, I was little hesitate to write about that, but I am glad I wrote that and it has been proved now. Check this article. The most stunning statistic, however, is that the total number of deaths caused by conventional medicine is an astounding 783,936 per year. It is now evident that the American medical system is the leading cause of death and injury in the US. I think most of the death are done by irregularity and careless in the medical treatment. Or entire medical industry is motivated by only one thing "PROFIT" and due to lobby in Government now it is out of control. Doctors are there for money not because they care, they look into insurance before treatment, covered or not, how the patient health and so on. How can they work well, if they have to work 18 hour continuously? Pharmacist never talk to you.
At the contrary, our medical industry are also responsible for the long life of the mankind. Due to such innovation in the treatment.
Every medicine you take there is some effect which cause known and unknown reaction in the body ( likely if you take multiple pills).
I think still better to consider Ayurvedic, Homeopathy, Chinese Traditional Medicine. Being said that you cannot use this for Bypass Surgery or other Life Threatening Emergencies.
Good Luck.
At the contrary, our medical industry are also responsible for the long life of the mankind. Due to such innovation in the treatment.
Every medicine you take there is some effect which cause known and unknown reaction in the body ( likely if you take multiple pills).
I think still better to consider Ayurvedic, Homeopathy, Chinese Traditional Medicine. Being said that you cannot use this for Bypass Surgery or other Life Threatening Emergencies.
Good Luck.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Execuses for the Jury Duty
I had to go to jury duty last week, thought its ok to serve country you lived in. There are around 100 people selected for this case. Everything was cool until Judge said that this trial will last 6 weeks. Immediately most of us shocked with that news and I can imagine everyone's mind has only one question. How can I avoid this? This days to claim financial hardship is very difficult for excuse. I saw Judge rejected few of them.
They gave us intial questionnaire to fill out. If you want to avoid jury duty you should be careful what you are writing there, neither you can write wrong/false information as you are under oath. But there are few question which try to measure your openion and view. I think you can use your writing skill there. Use the words that says you hate justice system, law are made for rich and corporate, lawyer can prove anything, witness can be baught etc. Mention that I am aware of the law suite that is related to this one. I did my best to express how I hate lawyer and justice system. But was not sure it will work. I have to wait until interview next day.
Next day, they called me says you finished your jury duty, I think those answers works. I relaxed as my job do not pay more than 2 week of service. But what if they call me for interview? I was prepared for that. I have to do a little role play, show some acting that I never did. This are the few thing you can do:
They gave us intial questionnaire to fill out. If you want to avoid jury duty you should be careful what you are writing there, neither you can write wrong/false information as you are under oath. But there are few question which try to measure your openion and view. I think you can use your writing skill there. Use the words that says you hate justice system, law are made for rich and corporate, lawyer can prove anything, witness can be baught etc. Mention that I am aware of the law suite that is related to this one. I did my best to express how I hate lawyer and justice system. But was not sure it will work. I have to wait until interview next day.
Next day, they called me says you finished your jury duty, I think those answers works. I relaxed as my job do not pay more than 2 week of service. But what if they call me for interview? I was prepared for that. I have to do a little role play, show some acting that I never did. This are the few thing you can do:
- Tell them that you exercise the independend judgement, I have my strong openion which is hard to change.
- Tell them you are biased, if it is lawsuite claiming money, you can say all corporate are cheater they cheat their employee and customers to pocket money by lying and wrong doing. Remeber merk, philip moris, enron etc. If it is criminal murder case then say they should be punished to death penalty.
- Use the phrase like jury nullification means everything in the lawsuite are right but its not suppose to be in my openion so I ignore those true fact and decided guilty based on what I think. This is powerful phrase to get out of this.
It is so funny that in a civil law suite case, both side make money Corporate by wrong doing and consumer for asking excessive money. But the people who judge get $15/day (oouch) and lawyer $15/min (wow) and they want best from jury. America is all about lawsuite where everyone is suing everyone to get money, and its easy to do so.
I am sure above will work. Good luck.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Dr. Nissen is God
Is pharmaceutical company devil? Not for the patient who suffer the diesesase. In fact, they do the business, they are capitalist. They hide the real information. They won't produce the drug if then don't make money. No offence with that though. Problem is they lie, and they lie again and again about the durg facts. So who are they Merk, Johnson and Johnson, Bristol Myer, Pfizer, and now Glaxo, basically whole industry work like that way.
Recently, Dr. Nissen has pointed out that the drug called "Avandia" has a risk of Heart Attack, while treating the Diabetes. My mother takes this drug, I asked her to stop taking it and take alternative after his report in medical journal. Thanks Dr.Nissen. Glaxo-Smithkline, producer of Avandia, denied such report.
Earlier he warned for Vioxx (later Merck agreed), Pargluva, Natrecor, and few more. He and his team making interesting study about how drug affect our body. Dr. Nissen has a strong record as an early and ultimately accurate critic on drug safety.
Recently, Dr. Nissen has pointed out that the drug called "Avandia" has a risk of Heart Attack, while treating the Diabetes. My mother takes this drug, I asked her to stop taking it and take alternative after his report in medical journal. Thanks Dr.Nissen. Glaxo-Smithkline, producer of Avandia, denied such report.
Earlier he warned for Vioxx (later Merck agreed), Pargluva, Natrecor, and few more. He and his team making interesting study about how drug affect our body. Dr. Nissen has a strong record as an early and ultimately accurate critic on drug safety.
Is China good for us, California?
On May 9, 2007, at the Mark Hopkins Hotel in San Francisco, a delegation of Chinese business leaders from more than 200 Chinese companies kicked off their visit to the U.S. by signing contracts committing them to buy more than $3 billion worth of California-produced high technology products. This company include Oracle, Cisco, Qualcomm, HP, Lam Research, KLA Tencor, Variant, Applied Materials, Paramount forms and few others.
We have a huge trade deficit against China. This is a little gift of doing so. Our (California) export to China is 10B compare to 5.5B in 2003. Last year they have a record surplus. They want US economy in good shape, to make sure that, they make both Consumer and Corporate America happy. Consumer sentiment they control using Treasury they buy enough to keep rate low; and Corporate by doing business and buying products.
The growth of the economy of the People's Republic of China has been remarkable. By the end of 2008, China is predicted (measured by exchange rate) to overtake Germany as the third largest economy. China's global trade exceeded $1.758 trillion at the end of 2006.
This is good for Govt. and people of California, at it reduce the tax liabilities to certain extnent.
We have a huge trade deficit against China. This is a little gift of doing so. Our (California) export to China is 10B compare to 5.5B in 2003. Last year they have a record surplus. They want US economy in good shape, to make sure that, they make both Consumer and Corporate America happy. Consumer sentiment they control using Treasury they buy enough to keep rate low; and Corporate by doing business and buying products.
The growth of the economy of the People's Republic of China has been remarkable. By the end of 2008, China is predicted (measured by exchange rate) to overtake Germany as the third largest economy. China's global trade exceeded $1.758 trillion at the end of 2006.
This is good for Govt. and people of California, at it reduce the tax liabilities to certain extnent.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Bravo! Ron Paul
In the GOP Presidential Debate there was something unusual happened. Republican Congress men Sam Paul stand out and blame US Foreign Policy for the 9/11 attack. Actually he has not said anything new, it was already there in the 9/11 Commission Report and CIA Report. Here is the executive summary of it. He said brilliantly in his answer that 9/11 event would not have occurred if we did not have our base in Middle East. Our base now in Iraq is more than the Vetican City. Further he said that What if China want to build base on our country what do we do? He also said that we make Bin Landen very happy by sending troop to Iraq. That make him very easy to kill American (so far 3400 troop killed) than attack in US. Rudy Giuliani was very upset and angry about it, he acted like he is president of GOP (is he?) and he asked to take the statement back, and he didn't.
Another topic, he said that he get rid of lot of extra taxes, one he mention inflation tax. He said, we are printing money for the war and give the money to wall street. So this will increase inflation where rich getting richer and poor getting poor.
Most of the American will hate him but to me his every answer was great.
Another topic, he said that he get rid of lot of extra taxes, one he mention inflation tax. He said, we are printing money for the war and give the money to wall street. So this will increase inflation where rich getting richer and poor getting poor.
Most of the American will hate him but to me his every answer was great.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Stock Market Return
Most of the financial analyst and guru would say it always make sense to invest in stock market for a long time. That means do not look your portfolio for short time check every 5 year or so and you will be richer. Yes its true it happens stock market (S$P 500) from 1950's to now return almost avg 11% annualy, and so what Dow. It is very important to know that its not the stock you own its the index. The index mean they remove underpeformer company and add good performing company. For example, there is only one stock in Dow since the begining and that is GE. So over the time most of the company in Dow was out of the business. So, if you do with individual stock you may not get that return.
Now the same though has a different angle. Barron's reported these stock market returns:
1901-1921, real returns averaged 0.2%/year
1929-1949, real returns averaged 0.4%/year
1966-1986, real returns averaged 1.9%/year
So avg 1% return for 60 years mentioned above. Sure, there were more substantial gains from 1921-1929, 1950-1965, and 1987-2000, but for more than 60% of the time in the 20th Century, the stock market returned an average of less than one percent.Then there's the matter of the large negative performance so far this century.
So what they says "Time does not matter" or "Don't time the market", I have to think twice.
Now the same though has a different angle. Barron's reported these stock market returns:
1901-1921, real returns averaged 0.2%/year
1929-1949, real returns averaged 0.4%/year
1966-1986, real returns averaged 1.9%/year
So avg 1% return for 60 years mentioned above. Sure, there were more substantial gains from 1921-1929, 1950-1965, and 1987-2000, but for more than 60% of the time in the 20th Century, the stock market returned an average of less than one percent.Then there's the matter of the large negative performance so far this century.
So what they says "Time does not matter" or "Don't time the market", I have to think twice.
Monday, May 14, 2007
Do something better than it's been done before
Yes that's (one of ) the formula to become wealthy according to Smart money article. Human basic characteristics are to protect, collaborate and to become adaptable. Those who don't cannot survive. Well, I don't mean we die soon but we live measurably. This theory can also apply to individual to become successful. We all do work everyday, sometimes same thing. Then, we should ask the question, "Have I done better than it has been done before?" If we cannot answer most probably we don't. If we can answer we are on track of increasing the productivity. Productivity is the measure of increase in the wealth. It is a the leading indication, you can see what will happen. IMO, wealth does not necessarily means money. But its the term I use for happiness. Money make you happy but that's not only thing make you happy. Does it influence? Sure it is. Anyway, other thing we need is the openness, don't think we are right, because most of the time we are not. If you stop listening different opinion you cannot grow your brain your thinking will never change. You cannot do better solely on your thinking you constantly need input in your brain and learn from the past.
This is what Charles Darwin says "It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. "
And this is what Benjamin Franklin says
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
This is what Charles Darwin says "It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. "
And this is what Benjamin Franklin says
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Some noteworthy California Driving Law
This post is for my wife as she got couple of tickets based on following. Hope she read here.
Disclaimer: these are paraphrased, and therefore may be wrong. If you need to know exactly what the law says, please look it up!
Disclaimer: these are paraphrased, and therefore may be wrong. If you need to know exactly what the law says, please look it up!
- both license plates issued for a vehicle must be displayed [CVC 5200]
- a seller of a vehicle has 5 days to notify the DMV of the sale [CVC 5900]
- a new owner must apply to the DMV for transfer of registration within 10 days [CVC 5902]
- an accident must be reported within 10 days to the DMV in Sacramento if there is death, bodily injury, or property damage > $500 [CVC 16000]
- U-turns are permitted on any green light unless signs prohibit[CVC 21451]
- a driver may not stop IN the crosswalk for a red light [CVC 21453(a)]
- right turn on circular red (not a red arrow!), and left turn on circular red from a one-way street onto a one-way street, are permitted after stopping and unless otherwise posted [CVC 21453(b)]
- a driver may not turn against a red arrow for the indicated turn regardless of signals shown for other movements [CVC 21453(c)]
- curb markings [CVC 21458}:
red: no stopping, standing, or parking
yellow: stopping only for loading or unloading passengers or freight
white: loading/unloading passengers, or depositing mail in adjacent box
green: time limit parking specified by local ordinance
blue: handicap parking - a double parallel solid line may be crossed to make a left or U-turn, or turn into or out of a driveway or private road [CVC 21460]
- a two-way left-turn lane may only be used to prepare for and make a left turn or permitted U-turn from or into a highway; a vehicle shall not be driven in that lane for more than 200 feet [CVC 21460.5(c)]
- a _pair_ of double parallel solid lines may not be crossed [CVC 21651(a)]
- a U-turn can be made wherever a left turn can be made on a divided highway [CVC 21651(a)(2)], although see references to 22102-3 below
- notwithstanding the prima facie speed limits, a vehicle driven at less than the normal speed of traffic must be driven in the right-hand laneexcept when passing or preparing for a left turn [CVC 21654]
- motorcycles can make use of high occupancy lanes unless explicitly prohibited by traffic control devices [CVC 21655.5]
- the descending vehicle shall yield to the ascending vehicle on a grade if the roadway is of insufficient width for both [CVC 21661]
- when preparing to turn, you must drive into a bicycle lane, if one, no more than 200 feet from the intersection [CVC 21717]
- pedestrians have right-of-way in crosswalks, but pedestrians shall not walk or run into the path of a vehicle [CVC 21950]
- right turns must be made into the rightmost lane except when turning from a terminating highway with three or more lanes or from a one-way highway at an intersection [CVC 22100(a)]
- left turns may be made into any available lane [CVC 22100(b)]
- U-turns must be made from the two-way left turn lane, if one, or leftmost lane otherwise [CVC 22100.5, 22102]
- U-turns are prohibited in a business district except at intersections or through openings in a divided roadway [CVC 22102]
- U-turns are permitted in a residential district only if no vehicle approaching is closer than 200 feet or where protected by sign or signal [CVC 22103]
- turn signals are required for turns and lane changes which may affect any other vehicle [CVC 22107]
- signals are required during the last 100 feet before turning [CVC 22108]
- vehicles shall be stopped or parked, where permitted, with the right-hand wheels within 18 inches of the right-hand curb; if no curbs, right-hand parallel parking is required unless otherwise indicated [CVC 22502(a)]
- it is unlawful to drive a vehicle while under the influence of an alcoholic beverage or any drug [CVC 23152(a)]
- it is unlawful for any person who has 0.08 percent or more, by weight, of alcohol in his or her blood to drive a vehicle [CVC 23152(b)]
- During darkness, lights shall not project glaring rays into the eyes of oncoming drivers when approaching within 500 feet. The use of low beams shall be deemed to avoid glare regardless of road contour. Low beam headlamps shall be used when following another vehicle within 300 feet. In all cases, foglamps and/or auxiliary passing lamps may be used with low beams if they are aimed so as to avoid projecting glaring rays into the eyes of oncoming drivers. [CVC 24403-9]
- The operator of a private motor vehicle is responsible for the use of seat belts by him/herself and all passengers 4 years of age or over [CVC 27315(d)]; in addition, passengers 16 years of age or over are responsible for their own seat belt use [CVC 27315(e)]. The fine for not wearing a seat belt is $20 for the first offense and $50 thereafter [CVC 27315(h)].
- you can be stopped and ticketed for _not_ wearing your seat belt - currently, you can only be ticketed if the officer stopped you for another infraction, then noticed that you were not
wearing your seatbelt. - a passenger seat restraint must be used for children under 4 [CVC 27360]
- there doesn't appear to be a law giving right-of-way to either party in a merge onto a freeway, although the Spring 1991 DMV California Driver Handbook states "Freeway traffic has the right of way." [p. 48].
- there is no law specifically prohibiting a lane change in the middle of an intersecting. There is no section in the CVC specifically outlawing a lane change in the middle of an intersection. HOWEVER, many revenue ... uh, law officers will ticket you under the blanket section generally known as "Unsafe Lane Change" [CVC 21658(a)].
- there appears to be no maximum permitted number of lane changes per mile, although CVC 22108 does require one to signal at least 100 feet before executing a lane change
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
New World Cup Cricket playing rules needed
The 2007 Cricket World Cup has no excitement (atleast for 1 Bil+ people) as two main country (India and Pakistan) was out of the world cup very early. Both team not qualified based on the judgement of one damn game. Is it fair? Not really, as cricket is a game of chance. Last worldcup South Africa was out and Kenya was into the Super Six, this time, we saw Bangladesh and Ireland are in Super Eight.
In this world cup i.e 2007, you will see top 4 strong team will come into semi final. Nice. But Semi-final and Final is again the game of chance, one bad decision, good catch, or bad luck, or rain screw the champion out of the tournament easily. This is repatedly happens in the world cup so far.
ICC should re-think the Rules and Regulation the way world cup will plays. The existing model works perfectly for other sports but it is just not right for the Cricket.
Here is what I think they should do:
Pre Qualification Round:
Goal : Pick one team from ICC ranking of 11 and above
Five Teams : Bermuda, Canada, Netherland, Ireland, Scottland
Matches : Every Team play with every team
Total Matches: 10
Result: Those who win/point more will Qualify for World Cup First round.
First Round:
Goal: Pick one team from the team of ICC ranking of 8 and above
Four Teams: Most Probable Zimbabwe, Bangladesh, Kenya and one from Pre Qualification Round
Matches : Every teams play with every team
Total Matches: 6
Result : Pick one with more win/points
Prequalify and First Round will prevent lot of one day record to be broken like India did with Bermuda and RSA with Scottland. This was done in first three worldcups.
Second Round or Super 8 Round:
Goal: Pick Four Teams for semi finals
Teams : All the team with ICC ranking from 1 to 7 and Winner of First Round, so total eight.
Matches: Every team play with every team
Total Matches: 28
Result: Pick top 4 team based on wins/points.
Semi-Final Round:
Goal: To pick top two teams for final.
Teams: Top four team from the second round
Matches: Play again with everyone
Total Matches: 6
Result: Top two team go to Final Round:
Comment: They are the strongest as they played with each of them.
Final Round:
Goal: Champion Trophy
Teams: Top two from semi final round
Matches: Three matches with each other
Total Matches: 3
Result: Best of three is champion
Comment: Same model Australia use in their Summer Triangular Series.
Total Matches: 53 (Just like last two world cup)
I hope they (ICC) get it at some point before next world cup.
Anywas this is my prediction for this worldcup
Semi Finalist
1. Australia
2. New Zealand
3. RSA
4. Sri Lanka
Final : Australia & RSA
Winner: Australia
In this world cup i.e 2007, you will see top 4 strong team will come into semi final. Nice. But Semi-final and Final is again the game of chance, one bad decision, good catch, or bad luck, or rain screw the champion out of the tournament easily. This is repatedly happens in the world cup so far.
ICC should re-think the Rules and Regulation the way world cup will plays. The existing model works perfectly for other sports but it is just not right for the Cricket.
Here is what I think they should do:
Pre Qualification Round:
Goal : Pick one team from ICC ranking of 11 and above
Five Teams : Bermuda, Canada, Netherland, Ireland, Scottland
Matches : Every Team play with every team
Total Matches: 10
Result: Those who win/point more will Qualify for World Cup First round.
First Round:
Goal: Pick one team from the team of ICC ranking of 8 and above
Four Teams: Most Probable Zimbabwe, Bangladesh, Kenya and one from Pre Qualification Round
Matches : Every teams play with every team
Total Matches: 6
Result : Pick one with more win/points
Prequalify and First Round will prevent lot of one day record to be broken like India did with Bermuda and RSA with Scottland. This was done in first three worldcups.
Second Round or Super 8 Round:
Goal: Pick Four Teams for semi finals
Teams : All the team with ICC ranking from 1 to 7 and Winner of First Round, so total eight.
Matches: Every team play with every team
Total Matches: 28
Result: Pick top 4 team based on wins/points.
Semi-Final Round:
Goal: To pick top two teams for final.
Teams: Top four team from the second round
Matches: Play again with everyone
Total Matches: 6
Result: Top two team go to Final Round:
Comment: They are the strongest as they played with each of them.
Final Round:
Goal: Champion Trophy
Teams: Top two from semi final round
Matches: Three matches with each other
Total Matches: 3
Result: Best of three is champion
Comment: Same model Australia use in their Summer Triangular Series.
Total Matches: 53 (Just like last two world cup)
I hope they (ICC) get it at some point before next world cup.
Anywas this is my prediction for this worldcup
Semi Finalist
1. Australia
2. New Zealand
3. RSA
4. Sri Lanka
Final : Australia & RSA
Winner: Australia
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Free Cricket World Cup Broadcast
Medical Treatment in US
Most of the people on the other side of this country thinks that the Medical Treatment is best in the United States. I simple hope they are true. While I notices that there are lot of new technology/computers they used in medical treatment, there is a pros and cons of them.
Nowadays, in the hospitals, all goes by number generated by digital instruments for the test of Blood Suger, Blood Pressure, Heart beats, Cholestrol level, Fever etc. They even don't bother to look at the other sympotoms which is critical and use this as a reliable instumensts which is not IMO. Doctor just look at the Reports generated by RNs rather than on looking at the patient. And yes, doctor need more administrative skill (70%) than the medical skill, except for the surgon I guess. Most of the medical works done by the nurses and doctors give the orders. They need to know more about insurance and paper works. And their treatment is based on your medical insurance.
I have also noticed that sometime doctor give order over the phone by chating with the nurse. Hmmm this sound familer. Do Doctor have to worry about their job can outsource? You bet! It can be done either by do consultation over the phone or by simple patient going to other country to do the medical procedures as it is so much costly here. Some of the Medical Facilities has already tried first option. You have to pay $35 for consultation over the phone compared to over $100 personally. The medical facility that I go they already doing this over the email, yes that is consultation with doctor through email, and it is so much cheap ie $65/year.
Nowadays, in the hospitals, all goes by number generated by digital instruments for the test of Blood Suger, Blood Pressure, Heart beats, Cholestrol level, Fever etc. They even don't bother to look at the other sympotoms which is critical and use this as a reliable instumensts which is not IMO. Doctor just look at the Reports generated by RNs rather than on looking at the patient. And yes, doctor need more administrative skill (70%) than the medical skill, except for the surgon I guess. Most of the medical works done by the nurses and doctors give the orders. They need to know more about insurance and paper works. And their treatment is based on your medical insurance.
I have also noticed that sometime doctor give order over the phone by chating with the nurse. Hmmm this sound familer. Do Doctor have to worry about their job can outsource? You bet! It can be done either by do consultation over the phone or by simple patient going to other country to do the medical procedures as it is so much costly here. Some of the Medical Facilities has already tried first option. You have to pay $35 for consultation over the phone compared to over $100 personally. The medical facility that I go they already doing this over the email, yes that is consultation with doctor through email, and it is so much cheap ie $65/year.
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Recession !!! Are we there yet?
Mr Greenspan has warned that he see the recession within one year. (See the news) However today he realized that it has big negative impact on the financial market. So today, he corrected that recession is possible not probable. I think he just try investor not to panic, which they already. First correction happens in India, down 5%, then in China down 9% (Remeber China Stock Market went up from 1000 to 2200 in just one year), then US down 3.5%, then Europe down 2%, who is next? It can be any of above.
What is Recession? It is the name of period where economic growth is negative for two consecutive quarters. I do not belive completely with this defination. To me, when corporate profit are sinking and household income/cash flow are reducing cause slowing economic activities. This can happen in cycle, corporate profit sinks followed by increase in unemployment and then hit by consumer and eventually hit hard on corporate.
We have not faced real recession for 15+ years. What we saw in 2001-2002 was sinking in corporate profit only and dot com bust, but the consumer spending were never went down significantly, and eventually it brougt up the corporate profit. How did consumer get the money to spend during this period? I think majority of due to very low/zero percent loan and big home equity due to significant increase in house prices. Internatial growth from China and India also help during last 4 years and it will continue to help.
Lately I saw everyday one company announce layoff and M&A activity. M&A is good for short term but longer term there will be more lay offs. And this is happening right now even though the job market is tight. Today I saw this news, which mention corporate layoff increases 33% in Feb 2007, it may be because of slowdown in Housing and Auto sector. But if it continue to like this you will see higher unemployment and lower corporate profit that mean recession.
What is Recession? It is the name of period where economic growth is negative for two consecutive quarters. I do not belive completely with this defination. To me, when corporate profit are sinking and household income/cash flow are reducing cause slowing economic activities. This can happen in cycle, corporate profit sinks followed by increase in unemployment and then hit by consumer and eventually hit hard on corporate.
We have not faced real recession for 15+ years. What we saw in 2001-2002 was sinking in corporate profit only and dot com bust, but the consumer spending were never went down significantly, and eventually it brougt up the corporate profit. How did consumer get the money to spend during this period? I think majority of due to very low/zero percent loan and big home equity due to significant increase in house prices. Internatial growth from China and India also help during last 4 years and it will continue to help.
Lately I saw everyday one company announce layoff and M&A activity. M&A is good for short term but longer term there will be more lay offs. And this is happening right now even though the job market is tight. Today I saw this news, which mention corporate layoff increases 33% in Feb 2007, it may be because of slowdown in Housing and Auto sector. But if it continue to like this you will see higher unemployment and lower corporate profit that mean recession.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
End of Housing Boom
I would not say that we through to the Housing Bubble, but due to lender program and risk-taker buyer put the housing market on the roof. Lately everyone has a concern on deliquencies in housing due to problem in subprime mortgage. Subprime mortgage means lender give loan to the people who has less credit scores, who either miss the payment or did late payment. They give loan to this people with few documents. This kind of loan reaches 1.3Trillion, 13% of them is already in trouble. As you can imagine, if this loans are bad, it will hit lender and financial market big time resulting in more foreclosures and cool down in housing market. Atleast 20 lenders are already in trouble. The subprime loan is huge now a day, just only in 2006, 20% of total new loan is subprime mortgage.
Bloomberg News
Bloomberg News
Friday, February 09, 2007
Stress-free Career
New Scientist reveals how to keep your hair and ditch your high blood pressure without emigrating to a Pacific island.
This feature is a part of the New Scientist Careers Guide 2007, available for free download.
1. Create a good space
A freezing office or an ill-placed coffee machine will probably cause less stress than a psychotic boss or an inhumane workload, but even if the working environment only accounts for a small slice of your daily stress. Take an open-plan office. This trade-off between privacy and a need for interaction can be just as important in a lab.
2. Raise your status
Are you the secretary? Working in the post room? The technician in a lab full of big shots? Beware: having lower status can shorten your life.
What can you do about stress caused by low status and lack of control? Well obviously if you were in a position to choose, you’d have complete control over all aspects of your working life. So-called “stress” in the top ranks is different from the frank lack of control experienced by underlings. But in the meantime, here are some things you can try:
1. Negotiate your hours, control over your working hours and days off makes less stress.
2. Educate Yourself: Those with a master’s had an 8.5 per cent risk of death.
3. Develop team rituals - Working as a team is essential to taking control
They found that stressed employees were much more likely to develop what’s known as “metabolic syndrome”, a constellation of characteristics such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol and high fasting glucose levels, which together increase the likelihood of heart problems. It seems that prolonged exposure to work stress directly affects the autonomic nervous system, raising levels of the stress hormones cortisol and adrenalin. These findings, the researchers say, provide a plausible explanation for how psychosocial stress at work can cause heart disease.
3. Be social
Hang out at the water cooler. Lunch with your supervisor. Booze it up together after work. Confide.
No matter how monotonous your job or how close you are to being laid off, social support from work colleagues will help lower your stress levels. But make sure do not do over.
4. Don't be too social
Being sociable is great, but sociability to the point of not getting anything done is stressful. The day often follows this kind of pattern: you’re intent on getting the data crunched, but in the cracks between replying to “urgent” emails, trading gossip with your neighbour and attending a string of impromptu meetings, there’s just no time.
5. Learn to switch off
Being able to forget about work after hours is good for you. So-called “psychological detachment” from the office has been associated with less fatigue, more positive mood and fewer days off work. If that’s true, though, why do so many people keep a BlackBerry or a cellphone in their pocket?
6. Modern stress-busting
Even with the perfect office, great colleagues and a harmonious home life, the demands of work can cause stress. Some people try yoga, deep breathing or lunchtime walks. But what if you need something a little more powerful to alleviate your angst?
You’re never more relaxed than when you’re asleep, and a nap may soon be as easy to buy as a haircut. In New York, for instance, MetroNaps will sell you 15 minutes of shut-eye for just $14. You can tuck yourself into a “pod” and doze until a gentle shaking and raising of the lights rouses you.
This feature is a part of the New Scientist Careers Guide 2007, available for free download.
1. Create a good space
A freezing office or an ill-placed coffee machine will probably cause less stress than a psychotic boss or an inhumane workload, but even if the working environment only accounts for a small slice of your daily stress. Take an open-plan office. This trade-off between privacy and a need for interaction can be just as important in a lab.
2. Raise your status
Are you the secretary? Working in the post room? The technician in a lab full of big shots? Beware: having lower status can shorten your life.
What can you do about stress caused by low status and lack of control? Well obviously if you were in a position to choose, you’d have complete control over all aspects of your working life. So-called “stress” in the top ranks is different from the frank lack of control experienced by underlings. But in the meantime, here are some things you can try:
1. Negotiate your hours, control over your working hours and days off makes less stress.
2. Educate Yourself: Those with a master’s had an 8.5 per cent risk of death.
3. Develop team rituals - Working as a team is essential to taking control
They found that stressed employees were much more likely to develop what’s known as “metabolic syndrome”, a constellation of characteristics such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol and high fasting glucose levels, which together increase the likelihood of heart problems. It seems that prolonged exposure to work stress directly affects the autonomic nervous system, raising levels of the stress hormones cortisol and adrenalin. These findings, the researchers say, provide a plausible explanation for how psychosocial stress at work can cause heart disease.
3. Be social
Hang out at the water cooler. Lunch with your supervisor. Booze it up together after work. Confide.
No matter how monotonous your job or how close you are to being laid off, social support from work colleagues will help lower your stress levels. But make sure do not do over.
4. Don't be too social
Being sociable is great, but sociability to the point of not getting anything done is stressful. The day often follows this kind of pattern: you’re intent on getting the data crunched, but in the cracks between replying to “urgent” emails, trading gossip with your neighbour and attending a string of impromptu meetings, there’s just no time.
5. Learn to switch off
Being able to forget about work after hours is good for you. So-called “psychological detachment” from the office has been associated with less fatigue, more positive mood and fewer days off work. If that’s true, though, why do so many people keep a BlackBerry or a cellphone in their pocket?
6. Modern stress-busting
Even with the perfect office, great colleagues and a harmonious home life, the demands of work can cause stress. Some people try yoga, deep breathing or lunchtime walks. But what if you need something a little more powerful to alleviate your angst?
You’re never more relaxed than when you’re asleep, and a nap may soon be as easy to buy as a haircut. In New York, for instance, MetroNaps will sell you 15 minutes of shut-eye for just $14. You can tuck yourself into a “pod” and doze until a gentle shaking and raising of the lights rouses you.
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Another Y2K ?
Did you remember Y2K problem and how people was worried about what's going to happen on 31-Dec-2000. Well, here it comes again. Energy Department has changed the Day Light Saving time dates. Beginning in 2007, the United States and Canada will extend Daylight Saving Time by three weeks in the Spring and one week in the Fall. Daylight Saving Time will begin the second Sunday in March and end the first Sunday in November. Previously, Daylight Saving Time began the first Sunday in April and ended the last Sunday in October
Read here full story.
During 2000, It was really funny when you saw few people taking action, some went to the top of the hill where there is no computer network etc, some go to country side, some fly out to third world and so on.
On 1 Jan 2001, we noticed that nothing happenend.
Now here it comes again, media has not focused this yet, but its getting heat now and people are worrying about it again. This time is good for IT Professional as many of them getting contract to work on resolving this issue.
To me its nothing much again, it just a time that need to change accordingly.
Good Luck.
Read here full story.
During 2000, It was really funny when you saw few people taking action, some went to the top of the hill where there is no computer network etc, some go to country side, some fly out to third world and so on.
On 1 Jan 2001, we noticed that nothing happenend.
Now here it comes again, media has not focused this yet, but its getting heat now and people are worrying about it again. This time is good for IT Professional as many of them getting contract to work on resolving this issue.
To me its nothing much again, it just a time that need to change accordingly.
Good Luck.
Friday, January 19, 2007
Scandal everywhere
Last few years we saw many scandal from Financial Analyst, Corporate Executives, Accounting Firm and Politician who tied to the Wall Street for their own financial benefits. We also saw some of them get punished. Due to this problem, Law enforment reform the law such as Sarbanes-Oaxley, Earning Statment signed by CEO/CFO etc. But this is what we know now. Is it enough? We don't know until another scandal comes out.
Did we know that Doctors also come into this cateogory. You bet.
Today, American Socity of Clinical Oncology found many doctors are involved with Wall Street/ financial link with the company for their drug research. ASCO now requires the doctor to disclose this financail link if any. Just like, you see on television, when some analayst recommend stock, they disclose that they own or do not own the stock of the company he/she talking about.
The updated disclosure policy, among the most strict of any medical group, says cancer physicians must disclose all consulting or advisory arrangements they have with either investment or commercial interests.
For more detail check out this article from bloomberg.
Right now one question comes into my mind, who will be the next?
Did we know that Doctors also come into this cateogory. You bet.
Today, American Socity of Clinical Oncology found many doctors are involved with Wall Street/ financial link with the company for their drug research. ASCO now requires the doctor to disclose this financail link if any. Just like, you see on television, when some analayst recommend stock, they disclose that they own or do not own the stock of the company he/she talking about.
The updated disclosure policy, among the most strict of any medical group, says cancer physicians must disclose all consulting or advisory arrangements they have with either investment or commercial interests.
For more detail check out this article from bloomberg.
Right now one question comes into my mind, who will be the next?
Friday, January 05, 2007
Still looking for New Year Resolution?
We have Bigger houses and smaller families, more Conveniences, but less time. We have more degrees But less sense, more knowledge, but less judgment, More problems, more medicine, but Less wellness.
We laugh too little, drive too fast, get Too angry, stay up too late, get up too tired, read Too little, watch TV too much, and pray too seldom. We talk too much, love too seldom, and hate Too often.
We've learned how to make a living, but not a life. We've added years to life not life to years. We've Been all the way to the moon and back, but have Trouble crossing the street to meet a new neighbor.
We write more (hmm exculde this writing please), but learn less. We plan more, but Accomplish less. We've learned to rush, but not to Wait. We build more computers to hold more Information, to produce more copies than ever, but We communicate less and less.
These are the Days of two incomes but more divorce, fancier Houses, but broken homes. These are days of quick Trips, disposable diapers, throwaway morality, one Night stands, overweight bodies, and pills that do Everything from cheer, to quiet, to kill. It is a Time when there is much in the showroom window and Nothing in the stockroom. A time when technology can Bring this writing to you. But I know less will read.
Remember, spend some time with your loved ones, Because they are not going to be around forever.
Remember, say a kind word to someone who looks up to You in awe, because that little person soon will Grow up and leave your side.
Remember, to give a warm hug to the one next to you, Because that is the only treasure you can give with Your heart and it doesn't cost a cent.
Remember, to say, "I love you" to your family and Your loved ones, but most of all mean it. Give time to love, give time to speak,! And give time To share the precious thoughts in your mind.
Good Luck and Happy New Year.
We laugh too little, drive too fast, get Too angry, stay up too late, get up too tired, read Too little, watch TV too much, and pray too seldom. We talk too much, love too seldom, and hate Too often.
We've learned how to make a living, but not a life. We've added years to life not life to years. We've Been all the way to the moon and back, but have Trouble crossing the street to meet a new neighbor.
We write more (hmm exculde this writing please), but learn less. We plan more, but Accomplish less. We've learned to rush, but not to Wait. We build more computers to hold more Information, to produce more copies than ever, but We communicate less and less.
These are the Days of two incomes but more divorce, fancier Houses, but broken homes. These are days of quick Trips, disposable diapers, throwaway morality, one Night stands, overweight bodies, and pills that do Everything from cheer, to quiet, to kill. It is a Time when there is much in the showroom window and Nothing in the stockroom. A time when technology can Bring this writing to you. But I know less will read.
Remember, spend some time with your loved ones, Because they are not going to be around forever.
Remember, say a kind word to someone who looks up to You in awe, because that little person soon will Grow up and leave your side.
Remember, to give a warm hug to the one next to you, Because that is the only treasure you can give with Your heart and it doesn't cost a cent.
Remember, to say, "I love you" to your family and Your loved ones, but most of all mean it. Give time to love, give time to speak,! And give time To share the precious thoughts in your mind.
Good Luck and Happy New Year.
Monday, January 01, 2007
The conspiracy theory of 9/11 attack
There are few people out there who belives the attack on the World Trade Center (WTC) was in the Businessman (Larry Silverstone) and/or Government (Guess who? ) interest.
I found tons of website and videos over the internet floating around, with different theory. There are certain facts (not conclusion) I want to list here.
1. Larry Silverstone (LS) build 47 Stories WTC 7 in 1980. (He bid it and won to lease and build)
2. In 1987, stock market crashed, and due to this, there was lot of vacancy, so NY/NJ Port of Authority (PA) who own WTC Buildings and LS was loosing the money, so in 1995 , Mayor and PA decided to lease for 99 year the lease process begun in 2000.
3. In Jan 2001, LS bid for it for 3.2B, first he outbid by 50M, but then other party withdrew it (hmmm why?) . So eventually LS got it in Jul 2001.
4. Since management changed, a new security contaract has been given to company, whose member Board of Director was Brother (guess).
5. There was a power outage (9/8 and 9/9), so no security camera/checking was availble for 48 hours, according to the employee of one of the company. Can something happen here? Read more here
6. CIA warns government about possible attack.
7. On 9/11, every one know what happen right? Twin Tower crashed. But may be few including me does not know that WTC-7 was crashed later in the evening, there was no jet crash on that building and it collapsed like Twin Tower.
8. Many Gov Agency ask to try to investigate but no access was given, after long time they gave that access. One of them was NIST, here is there latest conclusion.
9. LS in the interview on PBS says : "We've had such terrible loss of life, maybe the smartest thing to do is pull it. And they made that decision to pull and we watched the building collapse." What "pull it" means ? either building or fireworker, he later said he was referring fireworker. (who belives?)
Now look at the possible benefits.
1. LS who put only 14M his money (out of 3.2B) to lease WTC walk away with 5B from 9 insurer. He has to pay only 102M/Year to PA. And now he has a right to build a building.
2. US War: it cost us 355B so far cost to us as a taxpayer means income to someone. Other cost is uncountable such a death of 3000 soldiers and 6000 civilian in WTC.
3. Senior Bush repeatedly said that he regret Saddam is still in power. It is just one unfinished business. Well on last day of 2006 Saddam is now resting (click to watch execution).
4. LS give right back to PA to build Freedom Tower, who got funding through $8B Liberty Bond.
Many people has a mixed openion.
Whatever it happened it was unforgettable Tregedy.
I found tons of website and videos over the internet floating around, with different theory. There are certain facts (not conclusion) I want to list here.
1. Larry Silverstone (LS) build 47 Stories WTC 7 in 1980. (He bid it and won to lease and build)
2. In 1987, stock market crashed, and due to this, there was lot of vacancy, so NY/NJ Port of Authority (PA) who own WTC Buildings and LS was loosing the money, so in 1995 , Mayor and PA decided to lease for 99 year the lease process begun in 2000.
3. In Jan 2001, LS bid for it for 3.2B, first he outbid by 50M, but then other party withdrew it (hmmm why?) . So eventually LS got it in Jul 2001.
4. Since management changed, a new security contaract has been given to company, whose member Board of Director was Brother (guess).
5. There was a power outage (9/8 and 9/9), so no security camera/checking was availble for 48 hours, according to the employee of one of the company. Can something happen here? Read more here
6. CIA warns government about possible attack.
7. On 9/11, every one know what happen right? Twin Tower crashed. But may be few including me does not know that WTC-7 was crashed later in the evening, there was no jet crash on that building and it collapsed like Twin Tower.
8. Many Gov Agency ask to try to investigate but no access was given, after long time they gave that access. One of them was NIST, here is there latest conclusion.
9. LS in the interview on PBS says : "We've had such terrible loss of life, maybe the smartest thing to do is pull it. And they made that decision to pull and we watched the building collapse." What "pull it" means ? either building or fireworker, he later said he was referring fireworker. (who belives?)
Now look at the possible benefits.
1. LS who put only 14M his money (out of 3.2B) to lease WTC walk away with 5B from 9 insurer. He has to pay only 102M/Year to PA. And now he has a right to build a building.
2. US War: it cost us 355B so far cost to us as a taxpayer means income to someone. Other cost is uncountable such a death of 3000 soldiers and 6000 civilian in WTC.
3. Senior Bush repeatedly said that he regret Saddam is still in power. It is just one unfinished business. Well on last day of 2006 Saddam is now resting (click to watch execution).
4. LS give right back to PA to build Freedom Tower, who got funding through $8B Liberty Bond.
Many people has a mixed openion.
Whatever it happened it was unforgettable Tregedy.
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